Sensing Technologies
AI-Powered Pattern Recognition: - GPT-4 for connecting concepts - Perplexity for research depth - Custom models for industry patterns - Sentiment analysis for cultural shifts - Network analysis for influence flows
Human-Powered Insight: - Ethnographic observation - Cross-industry networking - Creative imagination - Systems thinking - Intuitive leaps
Scouting Frameworks
The SIGNAL Method: - Scan broadly for anomalies - Identify pattern breaks - Generate multiple hypotheses - Navigate implications - Amplify weak signals - Link to action
The FUTURE Framework: - Fringe activity monitoring - Unexpected combinations - Timing assessment - Underlying drivers - Readiness indicators - Execution pathways
Scenario Development Tools
The 4-Box Future Matrix: - Probable: Current trajectory - Possible: Could happen - Plausible: Might emerge - Preferable: Should create
The Backcasting Protocol: 1. Envision future state 2. Work backwards to present 3. Identify required steps 4. Spot early indicators 5. Position accordingly