Predicting cascade failures requires systematic thinking about interdependencies and failure propagation. Here's a framework for mapping dominoes before they fall:
Step 1: Identify the Trigger Domino
Every cascade starts with a triggering event. Identifying potential triggers in your domain helps you prepare cascade maps in advance.
Common trigger categories: - Regulatory changes (new laws, enforcement shifts) - Technology disruptions (new capabilities, platform changes) - Economic shocks (credit freezes, currency crises) - Social shifts (behavior changes, preference evolution) - Environmental events (natural disasters, climate impacts) - Geopolitical tensions (trade wars, actual conflicts)
Marcus identified potential triggers for his logistics business: port closures, fuel price spikes, driver shortages, regulatory changes. For each trigger, he mapped likely cascades.
Step 2: Trace Direct Dependencies
What directly depends on the triggered domino? These first-line dependencies will fail or stress immediately after the trigger.
When mapping port closure cascades, Marcus identified: - Immediate shipping delays - Warehouse overflow as goods pile up - Trucking capacity misallocation - Inventory shortages for just-in-time operations
These direct dependencies formed the first row of falling dominoes.
Step 3: Map Secondary Cascades
Each falling domino becomes a trigger for its own cascade. Map what depends on each first-order failure.
From trucking capacity misallocation: - Driver income disruption - Truck stop business decline - Maintenance service reduction - Insurance claim increases
The cascade map expands exponentially with each iteration.
Step 4: Identify Cascade Intersections
Where multiple cascade paths intersect, effects amplify catastrophically—but opportunities also multiply.
Marcus noticed cascades intersecting at cold storage facilities: - Port delays created storage needs - Trucking disruption prevented distribution - Power grid stress threatened refrigeration - Insurance costs spiked for spoilage risk
This intersection became his focus area for solution development.
Step 5: Project New Equilibriums
Cascades don't continue forever. New equilibriums emerge. Projecting these end states reveals long-term positioning opportunities.
The logistics cascade would eventually create: - Regionalized supply chains replacing global ones - Distributed inventory replacing just-in-time - Multi-modal transportation replacing single-mode dependence - Dynamic routing replacing fixed routes
Understanding the end state guided Marcus's long-term investments.