Recognizing where you are on the disruption timeline enables strategic rather than reactive decisions. Here's how to orient yourself:
Shock Phase Indicators: - News coverage focuses on the triggering event itself - Officials emphasize temporary nature - Markets show extreme volatility - Most people are asking "when will this end?"
Scramble Phase Indicators: - Everyone seems to be doing the same things - Obvious solutions become overcrowded - Panic buying/selling behaviors emerge - Quality drops as speed becomes everything
Adaptation Phase Indicators: - First wave solutions start failing - More nuanced problems become visible - Early adopters express frustration with initial options - Innovation begins emerging from unexpected sources
Acceleration Phase Indicators: - Clear winners start emerging - Word-of-mouth drives adoption - Investment flows toward proven models - Media coverage shifts from crisis to success stories
Consolidation Phase Indicators: - Industry associations form around new practices - Regulations begin addressing new realities - Traditional players start acquiring innovators - "Best practices" articles proliferate
Understanding these indicators helps you time your moves optimally, neither too early nor too late.