Trend Synthesis Tools
The 3-3-3 Method: - 3 trends from your industry - 3 trends from unrelated industries - 3 emerging cultural behaviors - Find the intersection
The Constraint Canvas: - What's currently impossible? - What would make it possible? - Who would pay for that possibility? - What exists in other domains?
Opportunity Evaluation Matrix
| Signal Strength | Market Size | Competition | Technical Feasibility | Timing | |----------------|-------------|-------------|---------------------|---------| | Weak (10x opportunity) | <$100M (Create market) | None (Blue ocean) | Impossible today (Wait) | Too early (Pioneer) | | Emerging (5x opportunity) | $100M-$1B (Capture share) | Few (Fast follower) | Difficult (Partner) | Just right (Strike) | | Strong (2x opportunity) | >$1B (Optimize) | Many (Differentiate) | Easy (Execute) | Late (Pass) |
Innovation Frameworks
The WEIRD Filter: - Why hasn't this been done? - Exactly who desperately needs this? - Is the timing finally right? - Real barriers vs. perceived barriers? - Dollar value of solving this?